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Mustard Price Forecast

Mustard Harvest Price May Remain Stable Around Rs 3200 Rapeseed-mustard (Brassica species) group of crops is the third most important oilseed crop after soybean and groundnut, contributing nearly 20-25% of the total oilseed production in the country. The crop is grown both in subtropical and tropical countries. The major rapeseed-mustard-producing countries in the world are Canada, China, Germany and France. There are three major oilseed crops grown in Rajasthan viz., Mustard, Groundnut and Soybean. Generally price of Groundnut oil is higher as compared to Mustard and Soybean oil. As per the latest release from Ministry of Agriculture,GOI, the total sowing acreage of mustard seed was reported at 56.60 lakh hectares as on 02nd December 2011, down almost 2.60% from the last year in the same period. The acreage under mustard shrinked on the account of vanishing sowing progress in Rajasthan as farmers were diverted towards other remunerative crop such as Chana and Wheat in the major producing districts such as Kota, and Sriganganagar. The total sowing acreage of mustard seed crop in Rajasthan was at 25.71 lakh hectares as on 2nd December 2011, down 3% from the last year in the same time. Moreover, concerns related to high temperature during the day period in major lower rainfall states such as Rajasthan, Haryana and Punjab might also impact the total mustard seed production. As per market sources, the total carryover stocks in the major mandies were reported at 2-3 lakh tonnes, down almost 5-6 lakh tonnes from the last year in the same period. Therefore, tight supply situation in the major mandies might incite strong support to the prices at every decline. In Rajasthan, the major mustard producing districts are Alwar, Bharatpur, Kota, Jaipur, Sri Ganganagar and Bikaner. The primary use of mustard seed is for extracting oil while the seeds are also used as condiment in pickles, meat and salad dressings. Mustard seed can also be milled into mustard flour and used as an ingredient in processed foods. The seeds when crushed yields around 27-33% of oil. The oilcake is mostly used as cattle feed. Mustard is a rabi crop in India and its sowing commences from October and continues till December end. Harvesting of the crop starts from mid February and market arrivals will start from February end. To help the farmers in taking a selling decision on Mustard, the prices that could prevail during March, April 2012 have been forecasted. The Agricultural Market Intelligence Centre (AMIC) functioning in Department of Agriculture Economics and Management, MPUAT, Udaipur collected and analysed the modal prices of Mustard that prevailed in Bharatpur Market during last twenty years. Also an opinion survey of Mustard traders was conducted. Based on the analysis and Market survey it is forecasted that Mustard seed (42% oil content) prices hover around Rs. 3100-3300 per quintal in the month of March-April 2012 subject to the existing import-export policy of the Govt. Therefore, farmers may take decision of selling the produce immediately after harvest. (S.S. Burark) CCPI (NAIP)

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Please note that this is the opinion of the author and is Not Certified by ICAR or any of its authorised agents.